T. Blakely, Jason Thompson, N. Carvalho, L. Bablani, N. Wilson, Mark Stevenson
The Medical journal of Australia, 2020
Victoria is the unlucky state in a lucky country. Australian states and territories, other than N ew South Wales, have achieved elimination of community transmission of the sudden acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV2): 28 days of no locally acquired cases where the source is unknown; twice the maximum incubation period. The situation in NSW is mixed. On one hand, NSW had ongoing case notifications of 10–20 per day in the month to mid-August 2020, arising largely from imported cases from Victoria. On the other hand, on 16 July there had only been three locally acquired cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection with no known source in the preceding 28 days, suggesting NSW was on the cusp of elimination. If NSW successfully contains the current outbreak, it may resume its prior trajectory towards the elimination of local transmission, leaving Victoria isolated as the only state with community transmission. As of late August, Queensland is also experiencing community transmission — possibly ending its elimination status (as defined by 28 days of no locally acquired cases where the source is unknown), subject to investigation of the new cases. It seems unlikely that states and territories that have eliminated local transmission will relinquish their status by freely opening borders and engaging with Victoria (and NSW if community transmission remains). Indeed, on 17 August the Queensland Premier stated: “Let me make it very clear, we will always put Queenslanders first and ... we do not have any intentions of opening any borders while there is community transmission active in Victoria and in New South Wales”. Australia proceeding with two separate systems (six or seven states and territories having eliminated the virus, one or two not) is a significant concern. There are three general strategic policy responses to the challenge of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): elimination, suppression, and mitigation (or herd immunity). No response is free of economic, s ocial and health harms; rather, it is about minimising harm. Society has largely rejected a mitigation response because of concerns about the likely high morbidity and mortality arising from such a response. On 24 July, the Australian Health Protection Pri ncipal Committee recommended “that the goal for Australia is to have no community transmission of COVID-19”, and on the same day Prime Minister Scott Morrison accepted and affirmed this recommendation, stating “The goal of that is obviously, and has always been no community transmission”. Unfortunately, this first clear statement that Australia’s goal is to eliminate community transmission was late in coming, as the Victorian outbreak was already in full swing , with case numbers peaking at a 5-day average of about 500 per day from 29 July to 5 August, resulting in a stage 4 lockdown commencing on 3 August.
Cited by 19 publications.
Field of study: Geography