Elisabeth Mahase
BMJ, 2020
The second covid-19 wave could last until April and see 85 000 people die from the virus in the UK, making it more deadly than the first wave, a modelling study has found. Across the UK more than 60 000 covid-19 related deaths have so far been registered,1 and since 10 October daily deaths have once again exceeded 100.2 Many experts are now calling for a second lockdown. The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) produced a now-leaked report outlining the second wave worst case scenario for the government on 30 July. The document, published by the Spectator ,3 said that there could be 85 000 deaths across the UK between 1 July 2020 and 31 March 2021, with daily deaths exceeding 500 for at least 90 days. The modelling paper also predicted 356 000 cases requiring admission to hospital and that the peak weeks will begin in early January 2021 and continue “past the end of the scenario on 31 March 2021.” The study made several assumptions, including that mortality in patients in hospital with covid-19 and treated with dexamethasone is reduced by 17% (based on Recovery study data) and that any acquired immunity is maintained over the course of the scenario. SAGE said that 77 000 of the 85 000 direct covid-19 deaths would be in England, 2600 in Scotland, 4400 in Wales, and 1900 in Northern Ireland. But the group also …
Cited by 10 publications.
Field of study: Medicine