K. Shea, R. K. Borchering, W. Probert, E. Howerton, T. Bogich, Shou-Li Li, Willem G van Panhuis, C. Viboud, R. Águas, A. Belov, Sanjana H. Bhargava, S. Cavany, Joshua C. Chang, Cynthia Chen, Jinghui Chen, Shi Chen, Y. Chen, L. Childs, C. Chow, Isabel Crooker, S. D. Valle, G. España, G. Fairchild, R. C. Gerkin, T. Germann, Quanquan Gu, Xiangyang Guan, Lihong Guo, Gregory R Hart, T. Hladish, N. Hupert, D. Janies, C. Kerr, D. Klein, E. Klein, G. Lin, C. Manore, L. Meyers, J. Mittler, K. Mu, Rafael C. Núñez, R. Oidtman, R. Pasco, A. P. Y. Piontti, R. Paul, C. Pearson, Dianela R. Perdomo, T. Perkins, Kelly Pierce, Alexander N. Pillai, R. Rael, Katherine Rosenfeld, C. W. Ross, J. Spencer, A. Stoltzfus, K. Toh, S. Vattikuti, A. Vespignani, L. Wang, L. White, Pan Xu, Yupeng Yang, O. Yogurtçu, Weitong Zhang, Yanting Zhao, D. Zou, M. Ferrari, D. Pannell, M. Tildesley, Jack Seifarth, Elyse C. Johnson, M. Biggerstaff, M. Johansson, R. Slayton, J. Levander, Jeff Stazer, J. Salerno, M. C. Runge
medRxiv, 2020
Policymakers make decisions about COVID-19 management in the face of considerable uncertainty. We convened multiple modeling teams to evaluate reopening strategies for a mid-sized county in the United States, in a novel process designed to fully express scientific uncertainty while reducing linguistic uncertainty and cognitive biases. For the scenarios considered, the consensus from 17 distinct models was that a second outbreak will occur within 6 months of reopening, unless schools and non-essential workplaces remain closed. Up to half the population could be infected with full workplace reopening; non-essential business closures reduced median cumulative infections by 82%. Intermediate reopening interventions identified no win-win situations; there was a trade-off between public health outcomes and duration of workplace closures. Aggregate results captured twice the uncertainty of individual models, providing a more complete expression of risk for decision-making purposes.
Cited by 9 publications.
Field of study: Medicine