SI epidemic model applied to COVID-19 data in mainland China

J. Demongeot, Q. Griette, Pierre Magal

medRxiv, 2020

The article is devoted the parameters identification in the SI model. We consider several method, starting from Liu et al. [17] to fit the early cumulative data of Sars-CoV2 in mainland China. This method provides a way to compute the parameters at the early stage of the epidemic. Next, we establish an identifiability result in the spirit of Hadeler [19]. Then we use the Bernoulli-Verhulst model as a phenomenological model to fit the data and derive some result on the parameters identification. The last part of the paper is devoted to some numerical Algorithms to fit a daily piecewise constant rate of transmission.

Cited by 6 publications.

Field of study: Mathematics

10.1101/2020.10.19.20214528