F. Dorn, S. Khailaie, M. Stoeckli, S. Binder, B. Lange, S. Lautenbacher, A. Peichl, P. Vanella, T. Wollmershaeuser, C. Fuest, M. Meyer-Hermann
medRxiv, 2020
Several countries use shutdown strategies to contain the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic, at the expense of massive economic costs. While this suggests a conflict between health protection and economic objectives, we examine whether the economically optimal exit strategy can be reconciled with the containment of the epidemic. We use a novel combination of epidemiological and economic simulations for scenario calculations based on empirical evidence from Germany. Our findings suggest that a prudent opening is economically optimal, whereas costs are higher for a more extensive opening process. This rejects the view that there is a conflict with health protection. Instead, it is in the common interest of public health and the economy to relax non-pharmaceutical interventions in a manner that keeps the epidemic under control.
Cited by 8 publications.
Field of study: Medicine