E. Volz, Swapnil Mishra, M. Chand, J. Barrett, Robert Johnson, L. Geidelberg, W. Hinsley, D. Laydon, G. Dabrera, Á. O'toole, R. Amato, M. Ragonnet-Cronin, I. Harrison, B. Jackson, C. Ariani, O. Boyd, N. Loman, J. T. McCrone, S. Gonçalves, D. Jorgensen, R. Myers, V. Hill, D. Jackson, K. Gaythorpe, N. Groves, J. Sillitoe, D. Kwiatkowski, S. Flaxman, O. Ratmann, S. Bhatt, S. Hopkins, A. Gandy, A. Rambaut, N. Ferguson
Nature, 2021
The SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7, designated a Variant of Concern 202012/01 (VOC) by Public Health England1, originated in the UK in late Summer to early Autumn 20202. Whole genome SARS-CoV-2 sequence data collected from community-based diagnostic testing shows an unprecedentedly rapid expansion of the B.1.1.7 lineage during Autumn 2020, suggesting a selective advantage. We find that changes in VOC frequency inferred from genetic data correspond closely to changes inferred by S-gene target failures (SGTF) in community-based diagnostic PCR testing. Analysis of trends in SGTF and non-SGTF case numbers in local areas across England shows that the VOC has higher transmissibility than non-VOC lineages, even if the VOC has a different latent period or generation time. The SGTF data indicate a transient shift in the age composition of reported cases, with a larger share of under 20 year olds among reported VOC than non-VOC cases. Time-varying reproduction numbers for the VOC and cocirculating lineages were estimated using SGTF and genomic data. The best supported models did not indicate a substantial difference in VOC transmissibility among different age groups. There is a consensus among all analyses that the VOC has a substantial transmission advantage with a 50% to 100% higher reproduction number.
Cited by 189 publications.
Field of study: Medicine