A. Aleta, D. Martín-Corral, A. Pastore y Piontti, M. Ajelli, M. Litvinova, Matteo Chinazzi, N. Dean, M. Halloran, Ira M. Longini Jr, S. Merler, A. Pentland, A. Vespignani, E. Moro, Y. Moreno
Nature Human Behaviour, 2020
While severe social-distancing measures have proven effective in slowing the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, second-wave scenarios are likely to emerge as restrictions are lifted. Here we integrate anonymized, geolocalized mobility data with census and demographic data to build a detailed agent-based model of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission in the Boston metropolitan area. We find that a period of strict social distancing followed by a robust level of testing, contact-tracing and household quarantine could keep the disease within the capacity of the healthcare system while enabling the reopening of economic activities. Our results show that a response system based on enhanced testing and contact tracing can have a major role in relaxing social-distancing interventions in the absence of herd immunity against SARS-CoV-2. An agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission shows that testing, contact tracing and household quarantine could keep new COVID-19 waves under control while allowing the reopening of the economy with minimal social-distancing interventions.
Cited by 171 publications.
Field of study: Medicine