V. Priesemann, Melanie M. Brinkmann, S. Ciesek, S. Cuschieri, T. Czypionka, G. Giordano, D. Gurdasani, C. Hanson, N. Hens, Emil Iftekhar, M. Kelly-Irving, P. Klimek, M. Kretzschmar, A. Peichl, M. Perc, Francesco Sannino, E. Schernhammer, Alexander Schmidt, A. Staines, E. Szczurek
The Lancet, 2021
92 www.thelancet.com Vol 397 January 9, 2021 Submissions should be made via our electronic submission system at http://ees.elsevier.com/ thelancet/ circulation within the population, and economies can and will recover quickly once the virus is greatly reduced or eliminated. China and Australia have shown this is possible. In contrast, the economic costs of lockdowns increase with their duration. Third, the control of the spread is most effective at low case numbers. Easing restrictions while accepting higher case numbers is a short-sighted strategy that will lead to another wave, and thus to higher costs for society as a whole. Testing and tracing capacities are limited: only with sufficiently low case numbers can the test–trace– isolate–support strategy quickly and efficiently help mitigate the spread. Hence, milder and more targeted physical distancing measures are sufficient, and schools and businesses can stay open. Fourth, contact tracing and quarantine is not feasible at high infection prevalence. Assuming a state with 300 new cases per million per day, ten contacts per case, and 10 days quarantine: then 3% of the population would need to be in quarantine, resulting in strong reductions of the workforce. Fifth, aiming for naturally acquired population immunity is not an option. The heavy burden in terms of morbidity and mortality, reflected also in the current excess mortality, and the uncertain duration of immunity should strongly discourage this approach. Sixth, planning is possible. When case numbers are low, there is no need for rapid policy changes. This reduces the economic damage and the uncertainty and strain on mental health. However, if case numbers rise too high, preventive measures must be taken decisively to bring them down again—and the earlier, the better. To better manage the COVID-19 pandemic, we propose a strategy with three core elements (panel). Calling for pan-European commitment for rapid and sustained reduction in SARS-CoV-2 infections
Cited by 29 publications.
Field of study: Medicine